Reserve Bank of Australia March 31/April 1 meeting minutes (full text).
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Not yet possible to determine timing of next move in rates
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Not appropriate at this stage for policy to react to potential risks
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May meeting would be opportune time to reconsider, decision was not predetermined
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Possible that global uncertainty over U.S. tariffs could have significant impact
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Global risks to growth had increased, were tilted to the downside
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Board saw risks on upside and downside for Australian economy and inflation
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Important to safeguard progress on inflation and not ease policy “prematurely”
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Labour market still considered tight, labour costs too high and productivity low
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Possibility labour market not as tight as thought, wage growth could continue to slow
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Trimmed mean inflation likely fell below 3% in Q1
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Data pointed to genuine improvement in consumer demand, beyond just sales events
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Board considered run down of RBA government bond holdings, saw no reason to change pace
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Governance board to consider risks in scale and maturity of bond holdings
AUD/USD is doing very little after the minutes.
The meeting concluded a day before Trump’s April 2 ‘reciprocal tariffs’ bumbling kicked off. That was two weeks ago and the picture is still murky. Perhaps we’ll get some clarity prior to the 19-20May Reserve Bank of Australia meeting (not holding my breath). A cut seems to be likely at that meeting:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.