Every analyst I’ve read on the Tuesday, 7 November 2023 RBA decision has forecast a rate hike.
I have seen a couple of hold outs though. I haven’t managed to read a piece making the arguments for a hold. If I was writing such a piece (I am not as I think the RBA will raise its cash rate today) I’d point o:
- the RBA having been complacent in the past and it wouldn’t surprise me if they are again
- the movement higher for inflation evident in the recent official is not “material” for the RBA’s inflation outlook
- the impact of past rate hikes has not yet fully filtered into the real economy so there is a reason not to hike
- expect a 25 bps hike following the outsized Q3 CPI print
- The outcome was material in our view and threatens the RBA’s ability to bring inflation under 3% by Q4’25.
- A hike would be consistent with RBA comments of ‘…a low tolerance returning inflation to target more slowly than currently expected.’
- That said, we do acknowledge the decision is a close call
Bolding mine. Yes, it is. Market pricing is around 60% for a hike.
- Failure to act on high CPI threatens to damage the Reserve Bank of Australia’s credibility
- Reuters Poll: RBA to high cash rate to 4.35% on November 7
- IMF tells the RBA to hike interest rates higher, and hold ’em high for longer
- Westpac forecasting a November Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike
- UBS forecasts a November RBA interest rate hike, and likely more to come after that
- RBA rate hike incoming on November 7 – will they hike again in December?
- Commonwealth Bank of Australia forecast a 25bp RBA rate hike on November 7
- Australia – Demand for luxury supercars “through the roof”
- Australian Treasurer Chalmers says inflation is moderating but persistent
- ANZ forecasts a 25bp RBA interest rate hike on November 7 (previous forecast was December)
- Australia – market is rapidly pricing in a November rate hike after surging inflation data
- AUD/USD jumped higher on Australian inflation data, November 7 rate hike is likely now.
The RBA statement is due at 2.30pm Sydney time, which is 2230 US Eastern time and 0330 GMT.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com. Source