Reserve Bank of Australia expected to hike its cash rate by 25bp today, but “a close call”

Every analyst I’ve read on the Tuesday, 7 November 2023 RBA decision has forecast a rate hike.

I have seen a couple of hold outs though. I haven’t managed to read a piece making the arguments for a hold. If I was writing such a piece (I am not as I think the RBA will raise its cash rate today) I’d point o:

  • the RBA having been complacent in the past and it wouldn’t surprise me if they are again
  • the movement higher for inflation evident in the recent official is not “material” for the RBA’s inflation outlook
  • the impact of past rate hikes has not yet fully filtered into the real economy so there is a reason not to hike

From TD:

  • expect a 25 bps hike following the outsized Q3 CPI print
  • The outcome was material in our view and threatens the RBA’s ability to bring inflation under 3% by Q4’25.
  • A hike would be consistent with RBA comments of ‘…a low tolerance returning inflation to target more slowly than currently expected.’
  • That said, we do acknowledge the decision is a close call

Bolding mine. Yes, it is. Market pricing is around 60% for a hike.


The RBA statement is due at 2.30pm Sydney time, which is 2230 US Eastern time and 0330 GMT.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at Source