Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet Wednesday – on hold decision expected – preview

The RBNZ statement is due at at 2pm New Zealand time on Wednesday, 16 August 2023

  • 0200 GMT and 10pm US Eastern time (on Tuesday, 15 August 2023)
  • RBNZ Governor Orr’s press conference will follow an hour later

“On hold” is near enough to being unanimously expected. Eyes will turn to the Bank’s forecasts, specifically to the ‘track’ of the cash rate ahead. Preview snippets (with more linked below):

Standard Chartered

  • We expect the RBNZ to keep the OCR at 5.50 with little reason for a change in either direction.
  • Given the still-tight labour market and elevated inflation, it would be premature for the RBNZ to mull rate cuts. Instead, we think the RBNZ will keep the OCR on ice and reiterate the need to keep the policy stance restrictive for the foreseeable future. We expect rate cuts only from Q2-2024 once higher rates and the migration-fuelled boost to labour supply percolate through the economy.


  • We think the Bank will publish an interest rate track that is almost identical to the May MPS. This means no change to the current 5.50% cash rate and forecasts for it to stay that way until late 2024. Markets are well priced for no change.

Earlier previews:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at Source