USDCHF spent last week consolidating after a sustained move lower that pushed the pair to its lowest level since 2011. The sideways action formed a support floor between 0.8098 and 0.81288, while allowing the falling 100-hour moving average to catch up to price.
On Thursday, the pair briefly moved above the 100-hour MA but failed to break above earlier swing highs from earlier in the week. By late Friday, the price had fallen back below the 100-hour moving average, shifting the short-term bias firmly back to the downside.
That downside momentum continued into today’s session, with the pair breaking below the April 11 low at 0.80987 and holding below that level since. With USDCHF now trading at fresh multi-year lows and little historical support in view, the path of least resistance remains to the downside—unless buyers can start reclaiming key topside levels.
To shift the bias, buyers would need to:
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First, reclaim the April 11 low at 0.80987
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Then, push above the swing area high at 0.81288
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Next, test the 100-hour moving average at 0.81576
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And finally, challenge the 200-hour moving average at 0.82119
Clearing these resistance levels one by one would build confidence for buyers and put sellers on notice. Until then, with the pair below the prior low and no strong downside targets nearby, sellers remain in firm control in both the short- medium-term.and long-term control.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.