S&P 500 Futures Technical Analysis and Price Prediction with tradeCompass (August 11, 2025)
Bullish above: 6,422
Bearish below: 6,416
Primary Bias: Mixed, range-bound conditions likely
Partial Profit Targets: See detailed levels below
Today’s S&P 500 Market Context and Directional Bias
At the time of this analysis, E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) are trading at 6,423, up 0.15% from Friday’s close. The day’s range so far is narrow at 6,408.5 to 6,429.5, only about 21 points, with the 50-week high at 6,468.6 not far above.
Despite some bearish news over the weekend — including coverage on investingLive.com — today’s TradeCompass reading shows that anything above 6,422 (aligned with both today’s VWAP and Point of Control) is considered bullish territory.
This means the current price is already in bullish ground. However, given the lack of a major upcoming catalyst, the market may remain in a tight range until a clearer directional trigger emerges. Traders should expect smaller, tactical opportunities rather than large directional moves unless conditions change.
Key Bullish Levels and Partial Profit Strategy for S&P 500 Traders (Prices in S&P 500 Futures):
First partial profit – 6,425, in line with the first upper standard deviation of today’s VWAP, ideal for quick risk mitigation.
Second partial profit – 6,428, just below today’s Value Area High, offering a reasonable intraday milestone.
Third partial profit – 6,430, matching the second upper standard deviation of VWAP, suited for intraday swing exits.
Final intraday bullish target – 6,434.5, in line with the third upper standard deviation of VWAP.
Extended bullish target – 6,464, just above the all-time high, for traders looking beyond the current range.
Key Bearish Levels and Partial Profit Strategy for S&P 500 Traders (Prices in S&P 500 Futures):
Bearish threshold – 6,416; price action sustained below here turns the bias negative.
First bearish target – 6,414, aligning with Friday’s Point of Control.
Second bearish target – 6,406, above Friday’s VWAP and near the third lower standard deviation of today’s VWAP.
Third bearish target – 6,400, a psychological round number and one tick above Friday’s Value Area High.
Extended bearish target – 6,384, just above the Value Area High from August 7.
Educational Insight: Why VWAP and Standard Deviations Matter
The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) represents the average traded price weighted by volume. In intraday trading, VWAP is a “fair value” reference point. Standard deviations from VWAP help traders gauge volatility and identify zones where price may overextend, prompting reversals or pullbacks.
When combined with Value Area High (VAH) and Point of Control (POC) from Volume Profile, these levels highlight where institutional trading activity is concentrated. This makes them valuable for setting logical partial profit targets and managing risk.
tradeCompass Methodology Reminders
-
One trade per direction per session. Prevents you from over trading and getting chopped up frequently. Keeps you disciplined!
-
After reaching the second partial profit, consider moving your stop to entry to reduce risk.
-
Adjust your approach to match your timeframe — scalpers may target the first or second profit level, while swing traders can hold for extended targets.
-
TradeCompass is an orientation tool, not a signal service. Adapt it to your style and manage trades accordingly.
Professional Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational and decision-support purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Trading futures involves substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. Always trade with capital you can afford to lose. Visit investingLive.com (formerly ForexLive) for additonal views.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.