Fundamental
Overview
The upside for the S&P
500 has been supported all along by the lack of bearish drivers. In fact, Trump
continues to get trade deals in the 10-20% range, which is widely expected and
priced in by now, and the economic data has been showing a rebounding economy
following the tariff-induced weakness in Q1.
The last NFP and CPI
reports have also been positive for the market as we got strong employment data
without higher wage growth, and the inflation figures (although higher than the
prior months) weren’t as bad as feared.
The Fed’s
decision yesterday was very much expected and didn’t move the market at
all. Rates were kept unchanged, and Waller and Bowman dissented voting for a
cut. The only change in the statement was the removal of the line saying that “uncertainty
has diminished”. That was less dovish than expected but was ignored as everyone
was focused on the Press Conference.
The Press Conference is
what moved the market. In fact, the market was expecting Fed Chair Powell to
open the door for a rate cut in September conditional on the data, but he didn’t
say that. He just dodged the questions by telling reporters that they would
look at the totality of the data. That was interpreted as more hawkish than
expected, although in my opinion he just kept his usual neutral stance.
The market dropped but the
losses were quickly erased following the strong
beats from Microsoft and especially Meta.
The data is what really
matters. Central banks don’t matter much now because they don’t offer forward
guidance. They just delegate everything to the data. The data is what will
drive their decisions. Therefore, watch the data carefully because hawkish data
will likely trigger a correction as the market reprices expectations.
In the bigger picture,
given that the Fed’s reaction function remains to either wait more or cut, the
market should eventually get back to its upward trend (barring growth scares).
S&P 500
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that the S&P 500 just continues to print new all-time highs as the lack
of meaningful bearish catalysts keeps the downside limited. This is now a “chasers”
market as we move up by inertia with little to no new change in terms of fundamentals.
From a risk management
perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the
6,200 support
to position for another leg higher. The sellers, on the other hand, will look
for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 5,800 level next.
S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have an upward trendline defining the uptrend. It seemed
like we were breaking to the downside yesterday following the slightly more hawkish
Fed Chair Powell Press Conference but following the strong beats on earnings
from Microsoft and Meta, the market bounced back and rallied into a new
all-time high.
If we get another pullback
into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it with a defined risk
below it to position for further upside. The sellers, on the other hand, will look
for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the next major trendline
around the 6,300 level.
S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a downward trendline defining the pullback into the upward
trendline and, as the price broke above it, the buyers increased the bullish
bets into new highs. Earnings-driven rallies generally don’t trigger sustained
trends unless they are supported by macro drivers. Given the Fed’s stance, we
could get a pullback in the next days if the US data comes out hawkish.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we get the US PCE price index, the
US Jobless Claims and the US Employment Cost Index. Tomorrow, we conclude the
week with the US NFP report and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.