Eyes will be on the US Supreme Court at 10 am ET (1500 GMT) as it delivers another decision.
We don’t know whether today’s decision will be on tariffs or something else. The Supreme Court doesn’t schedule its decisions, it only announces that a decision on one of the cases before it will be delivered today. We went through the same thing on Friday and tariff anticipation built up but the ultimate decision was on criminal law.
Betting sites saw a surge in the odds that tariffs will be struck down after oral arguments in November. A majority of Justices sounded skeptical that Congressional powers of taxation were being respected, or that the rule of law was being followed. If they’re struck down, the reasoning and remedy will be critical.
If the reasoning leans towards it being a ‘major questions’ problem, the other tariff remedies could also be under threat. If it’s more technical, then it clears the way for Trump to use other tariff powers to reconstitute tariffs, something that administration officials have pledged.
I looked at how the administration could pivot and use different tariff powers here.
The remedy is also a thorny issue. If the Supreme Court rules that tariffs must be refunded, then it would be a windfall for importers and a big hit to the US government’s finances. it’s nowhere near the ‘trillions’ that Trump often touts but the refunds would amount to around $130-$150 billion.
Last week, I wrote about the stocks that could be winners and losers on the tariff decision.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.