As the North American session begins, the GBP is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest. UK employment data was stronger than expectations. Swiss inflation was lower than expected (results are reviewed below). US stocks are lower in premarket trading after runs higher failed yesterday in the S&P (reached a new all-time high) and the Nasdaq (reached above the all-time high close). Oil is higher and trades between its key 200-day MA at $77.54 and 100-day MA at $78.07. Morning
Key US CPI data will be released at 8:30 AM with the expectations for the headline expected at 0.2% vs 0.2% last month. YoY is expected to dip below 3% to 2.9% from 3.4% last month (helped by the run off of a strong number a year ago). The Core is expected to rise by 0.3% vs 0.3% last month. YoY is expected at a still elevated 3.7% vs 3.9% last month. For a preview click on “Preview: What’s expected for Tuesday’s US CPI report?” and HERE.
In the European session, ZEW economic sentiment, UK employment and Swiss CPI were released. Below are the results of those releases:
EU and Germany Economic Sentiment and Conditions: Mixed
- The EU ZEW Survey Expectations for February indicated a positive outlook, registering at 25.0, slightly above the previous 22.7.
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment also showed improvement to 19.9 against an expected 17.5, up from 15.2, suggesting growing optimism among investors and analysts.
- However, German ZEW Current Conditions deteriorated further to -81.7, missing expectations and worsening from the previous -77.3, highlighting ongoing challenges in the current economic environment.
UK Employment and Inflation Data: Stronger with higher earnings.
The UK employment market showed resilience with a lower-than-expected Claimant and unemployment rate but higher-than-expected wage growth, indicating sustained pressure on inflation.
- UK Claimant Unemployment Change: 14.1K vs 15.2K expected and 11.7K previous (revised from 5.5K)
- UK ILO Unemployment Rate (Dec): 3.8% vs. Expected 4.0% (Previous 3.9%)
- UK Average Weekly Earnings 3M YoY (Dec): 5.8% vs. Expected 5.6% (Previous 6.5%, Revised 6.7%)
- UK Average Earnings Ex-Bonus (Dec): 6.2% vs. Expected 6.0% (Previous 6.6%, Revised 6.7%)
Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI). Lower than expected.
- Swiss CPI YoY (Jan): 1.3% vs. Expected 1.7% (Previous 1.7%)
- Swiss CPI MoM (Jan): 0.2% vs. Expected 0.6% (Previous 0.0%)
Looking at some of the key earnings released today. Shopify, Data Dog, Coca-Cola, Global Foundries, and Restaurant Brands either beat or met expectations on the top and/or bottom line. Moody’s, Marriot, Zoetix, Biogen, Hasbro missed on either the top or bottom line or both:
- Moody’s Corp (MCO) Q1 2023: EPS MISSED exp. 2.32, Revenue BEAT 1.5bln exp. 1.48bln. Shares are trading down -3.04% in premarket trading.
- Marriott International (MAR) Q4 2023: Adj. EPS BEAT 3.57 exp. 2.12, Revenue MISSED 6.1 bln exp. 6.2bln. Shares are trading down -3.45% in premarket trading.
- Shopify Inc (SHOP) Q4 2023: EPS BEAT 0.34 exp. 0.31, Revenue BEAT 2.14bln exp. 2.08bln. Shares are trading down -8.33% in premarket trading
- Datadog Inc (DDOG) Q4 2023: Adj. EPS MET 0.44 exp. 0.44, Revenue BEAT 0.590bln exp. 0.57bln.
- Biogen Inc (BIIB) Q4 2023: EPS MISSED 2.95 exp. 3.18, Revenue MISSED 2.39bln exp. 2.47bln. Shares are trading down -3.04% in premarket trading
- Coca-Cola Co (KO) Q4 2023: Adj. EPS MET 0.49 exp. 0.49, Revenue BEAT 10.8bln exp. 10.67bln.. Shares are trading up 0.79% in premarket trading
- Restaurant Brands International Inc (QSR) Q4 2023: EPS BEAT 0.75 exp. 0.73, Revenue BEAT 1.82bln exp. 1.81bln. Shares are trading up 0.93% in premarket trading.
A snapshot of the markets as the North American session begins currently shows:
- Crude oil is trading up $0.60 or 0.78% at $77.52. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $75.99
- Gold is trading up $7.78 or 0.38% at $2027.64. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $2021
- Silver is trading up $0.18 or 0.82% at $22.83. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $42.93
- Bitcoin trades at $49,911. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $47,940. The high-priced today reached $50,385, the highest level since December 28, 2021
In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are all trading lower after the S&P yesterday failed to close at a new all-time high yesterday (after trading at a new all-time high of 5048.39). The NASDAQ index moved above but failed to stay above its highest closing level at 16057.44. The index closed lower yesterday by -0.30%.
- Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a decline of -35.38 points. Yesterday, the index rose 125.69 points or 0.33% at 38797.39
- S&P futures are implying a decline of -17.09 points. Yesterday, the index fell -4.79 per points or -0.10% at 5021.83. Intraday, the high-priced reached 5048.39 a new all-time intraday high-priced
- Nasdaq futures are implying a decline of -121 points. Yesterday, the index fell -48.12 points or -0.30% at 15942.55
In the European equity markets, the major indices are trading lower:
- German DAX, -0.56%
- France CAC -0.47%
- UK FTSE 100, -0.27%
- Spain’s Ibex, -0.06%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.45% (delayed by 10 minutes).
Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mixed after some of the Asian markets returned from holidays:
- Japan’s Nikkei 225, rose 2.89%
- China’s Shanghai composite index , rose 1.28%
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, fell -0.83%
- Australia S&P/ASX, fell -0.15%
Looking at the US debt market, yields are lower.
- 2-year yield 4.472%, +0.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.416%
- 5-year yield 4.128%, unchanged. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.119%
- 10-year yield 4.165% -0.4 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.159%
- 30-year yield 4.359% -0.9 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.364%
- The 2-10 year spread is at -31 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -30.3 basis points
- The 2-30 year spread is at -11.3 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -9.6 basis points.
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10-year yields are lower:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source