Looking at the hourly chart of the EURUSD below, the 100-hour MA has been in play over the last 7 or so trading days. The tests of the moving average over that time has found support buyers ahead or soon after a small dip below the MA level.
The bounces off that MA say the buyers are anxious to buy. They are using the 100-hour MA as a risk level. They are in control.
Earlier today, the price correction came back down to the 100-day moving average and found buyers. After a modest bounce higher, the moving average is being retested. This time at a higher level of 1.08569.The 100 hour MA was a few pips lower earlier today.
The dynamics of a market moving higher is also that the 100-hour moving average moves higher with it. As a result, the hurdle for a break below is easier. In a way, the buyers are at a disadvantage. They have to continue to keep buying at higher levels to keep full control. Then again, that is what trending markets do. They have higher lows on corrections and higher highs too. .
Having said that, if broken, it is often the first hurdle that gives sellers more control. However, there will be other hurdles along the way. Since the price was trending higher, the buyers has been mostly in control. Consequently the sellers have to prove themselves.
Specifically, the low price on Friday not only tested the rising 100-day moving average but also the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the March 2024 high. While the MA is variable (and moved higher), the retracement level has remained the same. Getting below their level would be required and 1.08354. Below that and the 100 day moving average at 1.08175 would be the focus.
So overall, buyers are in control still above the 100-hour MA but sellers are making a play. Can they keep the downside today and break the 100 hour MA? That is the key barometer for the day.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source