The USDCHF continued its downward slide today, reaching yet another new low—this time going back to 2011—keeping sellers firmly in control. To reverse the trend, buyers need to either lean against a strong support level or reclaim a technical level on the topside to signal a shift in momentum.
On the weekly chart, there isn’t much meaningful support until the 0.7709 area. That level was a low going back to September 2011 (see weekly chart above).
On the topside, a move back above the April low at 0.8032 would represent a potential turning point for buyers. With the pair currently trading near 0.7904, it sits roughly in the middle of that broad weekly range.
Switching to the hourly chart, the price has remained well below its 100-hour moving average, which sits up at 0.7986, ever since breaking beneath it on June 23 near 0.8170. In just six trading days, the pair has fallen to a low of 0.78714—a sharp drop over a short time frame.
That said, today’s low found support at a lower trendline connecting the June 24 and June 26 lows (see chart below). Holding this line could signal a temporary bottom and invite some dip buying or profit-taking.
What would give buyers added confidence?
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First, a move above yesterday’s close and today’s highs near 0.7930
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Then, a push above last Friday’s low at 0.7957
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Finally, a sustained break back above the 100-hour MA at 0.7986
These are the next three key upside targets that could indicate a shift in momentum. For now, holding the trendline support offers buyers a glimmer of hope that the relentless selling may pause—at least temporarily.
Conversely, a move back below the low for the day and then the downward sloping trendline would not be good for those hoping for a bottom and rotation back to the upside in the USDCHF.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.