I don’t think the comments from Jamie Dimon yesterday got enough attention.
That might just be an artifact of quiet summer markets but he said the market was underpricing the risk of rising US interest rates.
Dimon said his view of the possibility of a further rate increase was “higher than anybody else”. “The market is pricing a 20% chance. I would price in a 40-50% chance,” the biggest U.S. bank’s top boss told an event at Ireland’s foreign ministry.
“I would put that as a cause for concern.”
Dimon cited tariffs, immigration and the huge US budget deficit all as possible triggers for inflation. I would add rising stock markets to that.
Another notable comment from him was that he said real-time US economic data at the moment was “totally impossible to read” which is a line I can sympathize with.
As for the FX market, rising yields have underpinned a bounce in the US dollar so far in July — particularly USD/JPY. Keep an eye on 3.92% in 2s and the weekly high of 4.97% on 10s. I’d imagine we could see some angst spill over into equities on a break of 5% but I’d need to see 5.20% to truly get concerned, especially in the summer.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.