- Prior 4.7%
- Employment change 239k vs 185k expected
- Prior 134k
- Average weekly earnings +4.6% vs +4.7% 3m/y expected
- Prior +5.0%
- Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +5.0% vs +5.0% 3m/y expected
- Prior +5.0%
- July payrolls change -8k
- Prior -41k; revised to -26k
The jobless rate holds steady on the month but the labour market is still gradually softening amid further weakness in payrolls. A good sign for the BOE to pursue cutting rates further is that real wages are continuing to ease further. In the months from April to June, total pay (in real terms) is seen easing to +0.5% while regular pay (in real terms) is seen falling to +0.9%. These are the lowest readings in almost two years now.
The BOE looks poised to pause in September but if labour market conditions keep this way in the months ahead, they could look to tee up a move in November or December. However, they still have to balance things out against consumer price inflation. So, therein lies the stagflation risks for the UK economy.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.