US nonfarm payroll rises by 73K vs 110 K estimate/Unemployment rate 4.2%. Big revisions.

• Non-Farm Payrolls: 73K vs Est. 110k, Prior 147k revised lower to 14K (big revision)

• Private Payrolls: 83K vs Est. 100k, Prior 74k. Prior month revised to 3K

• Manufacturing Payrolls: -11K vs Est. -3k, Prior -7k. Prior month revised to -15 K

• Government Payrolls: -10 vs prior 73k revised to 11 K

• Unemployment Rate: 4.2% versus Est. 4.2%, Prior 4.1%

• Average Earnings MoM: 0.3% versus Est. 0.3%, Prior 0.2%

• Average Earnings YoY: 3.9% versus Est. 3.8%, Prior 3.7% revised to 3.8%

• Average Workweek Hours: 34.3 versus Est. 34.2, Prior 34.2

• Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.2% No Est, Prior 62.3%

• U6 Underemployment: 7.9% versus prior 7.7%

The data – when you consider the revisions – is much weaker than expectations. The big surprises the revisions from prior month which tumbled from 147K to 14 K. Not only that. The total to month payroll revision was -258K.

Recall the initial report last month had state and local government adding 73,000 jobs which was weird. That seems to have been not correct.

The initial reaction is the US stocks have maintained their declines. Yields are lower. The USD is lower.

• S&P -53 points
• Nasdaq -243 points
• 2 year -16.5 basis points at 3.788%
• 10 year -8.1 basis points at 4.27%

That might explain the Post earlier:

Fed chair Powell said on Wednesday that the Fed would have two months of employment and inflation data to help make the decision in September. Little did he know that the two months came today with the revisions and the current month payroll data which was weaker. With the September decision not until September 17, and it being August 1, its a lot of time for more Truth Social posts.

There is a 75% chance of a rate cut in September and 72% in December.

Here is a breakdown:

• Total nonfarm: +73k

• Total private: +83k

• Goods-producing: -13k

  • Mining and logging: -4k

  • Construction: +2k

  • Manufacturing: +2k

    • Durable goods: -11k

    • Motor vehicles and parts: 0k

    • Nondurable goods: -2.4k

• Private service-providing: +96k

  • Wholesale trade: -7.8k

  • Retail trade: +15.7k

  • Transportation and warehousing: +3.6k

  • Utilities: -0.1k

  • Information: -2k

  • Financial activities: +15k

  • Professional and business services: -14k

    • Temporary help services: -4.4k

  • Private education and health services: +79k

    • Health care and social assistance: +73.3k

  • Leisure and hospitality: +9k

  • Other services: +1k

• Government: -10k

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.