The USD is continuing its move to the downside in the NY session after the weaker than expected flash PMI data. The greenback is now weaker versus all the major currencies with the exception of the GBP, after trading at higher levels after both EU and UK PMI data also was weaker. It seemed all ships are thinking or taking on water.
Looking at the technicals for the major currency pairs:
- EURUSD: The EURUSD has moved back above the swing area at 1.0833 and 1.08485 (see earlier video outlining the level on the 4-hour chart). The next target is being approached at the high for the day (at 1.0871), and also the falling 100-hour moving average at 1.08727. Getting above that moving average would have traders targeting the falling 200-hour moving average at 1.08942. Yesterday the price moved above that 200-hour moving average on its way to test its 100-day moving average, but found willing sellers against the 100-day moving average. In trading today at session lows, the price got within 4-5 pips of its 200-day moving average at 1.07972 (the law was 1.08017).
- USDJPY: The USDJPY is training to new settlers and in the process is banging against the 38.2% retracement of the August trading range at 144.624.The low price has traded below the level to 144.57, BUT momentum has faded a bit. T all he current price is trading at 144.65. It’s a tough call, but sellers looking for more downside could use the 144.886 – 145.100 as a risk-defining area. Stay below keeps sellers in play. Conversely move back below the 38.2% retracement, and the next downside target comes near the 50% midpoint of the August trading range at 144.028.
- AUDUSD: The AUDUSD is training to the highest level since last Tuesday. In the process, the price has moved above a swing area between 0.64536 and 0.64586. Earlier in the day, the price was based near the 100-hour moving average of 0.6416, and extended above the 200-hour moving average of 0.6440. That 200-hour moving average stalled the rise yesterday. Close risk is now a move back below the low of the swing area near 0.6453. A more conservative risk for buyers looking for more upside would be the 200-hour moving average of 0.6440. On the top side, the swing home from last Tuesday and 0.6480 would be the next target to get to and through followed by the 0.6495 area (the falling 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart is currently at 0.64985 – not shown), 0.6513, and then the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July high which comes in at 0.6565. The AUDUSD has been on a downward trend for a while with limited moves above its 200 hour moving average. Getting back above it today and staying above it is a more positive signal for dip buyers.
- NZDUSD: The NZDUSD is extending away from its 200-hour moving average to 0.5948 in trading today. Yesterday, the price moved above the moving average only to fail and move back lower. Earlier today, the price moved above the 200-hour moving average and failed. So this is the 3rd try in 2 days and the momentum is increasing. On the top side, the next target comes between 0.5985 and 0.5996. Get above that area and traders can look toward another swing area between 0.60249 and 0.6032.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source