USD is sharply lower after “Liberation Day”. What technicals are driving the major pairs

Technical Analysis

The USD is sharply lower vs the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD after the “Liberation Day” tariffs. As a review, below are the current new tariff view for the EU, JPY and GBP

European Union (EU):

  • Baseline Tariff: A 10% tariff was imposed on all foreign imports

  • Reciprocal Tariff:An additional 20% tariff was applied specifically to EU imports, bringing the total to 30%.

  • Steel and Aluminum: A 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from the EU took effect on March 12, 2025. ​

Tariffs on Japanese Imports:

  • Baseline Tariff: A universal 10% tariff on all imports was introduced, effective April 5, 2025.

  • Reciprocal Tariff: An additional 24% tariff was imposed specifically on Japanese imports, bringing the total to 34%. This higher rate was scheduled to take effect on April 9, 2025.

  • Automobile Imports:Separately, a 25% tariff on all automobile imports, including those from Japan, took effect on April 3, 2025.

United Kingdom (UK):

  • Baseline Tariff: The UK faced the general 10% tariff on all imports.​

  • Reciprocal Tariff:Unlike the EU, the UK was spared additional reciprocal tariffs due to strategic negotiations post-Brexit.

  • Steel and Aluminum: Despite previous exemptions, a 25% tariff on UK steel and aluminum imports was imposed, effective March 12, 2025.

FYI, the top 10 trading partners with the US:

  • Mexico: 14.5%​

  • Canada: 13.5%​

  • China: 10.7%​

  • Switzerland: 5.3%​

  • Germany: 4.1%​

  • Japan: 3.9%​

  • South Korea: 3.3%​

  • Ireland: 3.1%​

  • Taiwan: 3.0%​

  • Vietnam: 2.9%

The market has reacted with a sharp fall in US stocks, lower yield and the lower dollar (which makes US exports cheaper abroad).

In the video above, I outline the technicals that will now drive the major currencies given the sharp moves.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.