The USDCAD moved lower after the softer-than-expected US jobs report. That move to the downside stalled against an old ceiling area between 1.36049 and 1.36154. The price started to rebound back to the upside.
The move back higher was able to extend back above the 50% midpoint of the April trading range at 1.3661. That disappointed sellers and has led to more upside momentum. The move higher has taken the price back toward its 200-hour moving average at 1.36914. That 200-hour moving average did hold resistance, setting the level as the topside technical ceiling – at least for now.
So overall support held near 1.3605 – 1.36154. Midpoint resistance did not hold near the 50% retracement at 1.36617, but resistance did hold against the 200-hour moving average at 1.36914.
If the sellers are to take back control, they need to get below the 50% retracement. If done, a rotation back through the 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.3644 would open the door for a retest of the old ceiling/new floor (near 1.3610).
Conversely, if buyers are to keep control, they need to stay above that midpoint level. The 200-hour moving average needs be broken and remain broken to increase that bullish bias.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source