The USDCAD has moved up and down since mid-April. Most of the trading has been between 1.36049 and 1.3803 (around 200 pips) in between 6100 and 200 bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart near 1.3685. Prior to the FOMC rate decision and after the US CPI data yesterday, the price move down to test those two moving averages and found willing buyers/profit-taking. The FOMC rate decision help to push the price higher.
That move to the upside did stall the rise near the 61.8% retracement of the range since the April high at1.37475. The subsequent fall took the price back down toward the 50% midpoint of the same range at 1.37173.
For today, those retracement levels will be used as close support and close resistance. Breaking above or below those extremes with momentum would tilt the bias in the direction of the break.
On a break lower, the 100 and 200 bar moving averages at 1.3685 would be support.
On a break higher, the topside spring area between 1.3784 and 1.3803 would be targeted.
I would give the over bias nod to the buyers. The price is above the 100/200 bar MAs on the 4-hour. The price is above the 50% of the range since April.
Of course, there is work to do to increase the bullish bias. The price needs to get and stay above 1.3803 and stay above.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source