Tariffs are a big driving influence in the USDCAD. If there is a threat, the USDCAD tends to go higher. If the pressure is off, the price can wander lower. The so-called “Liberation Day” is on April 2 and that has the markets concerned and with it the USDCAD higher.
Technically, the USDCAD is showing renewed bullish momentum after bouncing from a key support confluence last week. The pair found buyers near the 100-day moving average at 1.4269, which also aligns with a key swing area dating back to December. The failed break below this zone resulted in a sharp rebound, keeping the broader range structure intact.
In early North American trading, price action has climbed back above both the 100- and 200-bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart, currently at 1.4318 and 1.4344 respectively. Holding above these levels shifts short-term bias in favor of the bulls.
The next upside target lies within the 1.4448–1.4471 resistance area—an upper boundary that has repeatedly capped rallies for over three months. A break above this zone would suggest a potential breakout from the prolonged range and could open the door toward 1.4495 and even 1.4660, if supported by fundamentals like tariff developments.
On the downside, a move back below 1.4318 and especially 1.4269 would negate this bullish tilt and place sellers back in control, with 1.4236 and 1.4168 acting as next supports.
Key technical levels:
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Support: 1.4318 (200-bar MA), 1.4269 (swing + 100-day MA), 1.4236
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Resistance: 1.4401 (high from last week), 1.4448–1.4471 (key range), 1.45399 (high price from March)
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.