The USDJPY high today in the Asian-Pacific session stalled against the high from yesterday and set a ceiling area between 146.299 and 146.40.
Sellers took the price down to – and through – the 100-hour moving average, on its way toward its rising 200-hour moving average. The low price today got within 8 or so pips of that moving average before bouncing back to the upside into the US opening hours. That move took the price back above its 100-hour moving average currently at 145.829. The buyers were back in control.
More recently, however, the price has rotated back to the downside and has traded back below its 100-hour moving average. That has now taken the price between the 200-hour moving average below and the 100-hour moving average above and into more neutral territory.
Needless to say, the price tested the 200-hour moving average last Friday and moved toward that moving average earlier today only to find early buyers. Getting below the 200-hour moving average is step one for a more bearish bias. Once that is broken focus will turn toward the 144.88 to 145.10 area. Get below that level and the 38.2% retracement of the move-up in August comes into focus at 144.624.
Those are the progressive steps and hurdles that would need to be taken (and broken) to increase the bearish bias.
Conversely, a move back above the 100-hour moving average and the 145.90 level (is a key level on the daily chart), puts the buyers back in control in the short term, and hopes will again shift toward the 146.299 – 146.40 area and the high price from last week’s trading at 146.554. To review my recent video on the pair, it is included in the video below (from earlier this morning).
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source