The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts.
In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.
CPI Y/Y
- 2.8% (5%)
- 2.7% (12%)
- 2.6% (43%) – consensus
- 2.5% (40%)
CPI M/M
- 0.3% (3%)
- 0.2% (28%)
- 0.1% (56%) – consensus
- 0.0% (13%)
Core CPI Y/Y
- 3.1% (22%)
- 3.0% (66%) – consensus
- 2.9% (10%)
- 2.8% (2%)
Core CPI M/M
- 0.5% (1%)
- 0.4% (3%)
- 0.3% (64%) – consensus
- 0.2% (30%)
- 0.1% (2%)
Today’s release will likely be the least important one in a while as the the data not only is old news, but the focus remains on tariff negotiations and what China decides to do next.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.