The Bank of Canada decision is at 9:45 am ET and the latest commentary from Governor Macklem is that they would be putting more emphasis on risk and trying to be forward looking.
How does the OIS market see it:
- 92% chance of a cut today to 2.25%
- 24% chance of a further cut in December
- 53% chance of a cut in January
- 72% chance of a cut in March
The curve flattens from there with the market seeing a terminal bottom at 2.25% or 2.00%. That would be the bottom end of neutral or just below. It would leave some dry powder if trade or economic outcomes disappoint.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.