A technical look at the major currency pair after Fed Chair Powell Jackson Hole speech

The USD initially moved lower during and after the Fed Powell speech at Jackson Hole. However, that trend has reversed with the dollar moving back to the upside.

Technically speaking, the move lower in the dollar did find willing buyers against technical levels in most of the major currency pairs. I outlined those levels in premarket videos on forexlive.com.

  • EURUSD: The EURUSD is back below its 200-day moving average at 1.0801, and test a swing area between 1.07738 and 1.07899. Moving to and staying below the level increases the bearish bias. It would take a move back above the 200-day moving average to tilt the bias back to the upside now. Absent that the sellers are in control.
  • USDJPY: The USDJPY test converged 100 and 200-hour moving averages at 145.68 and bounced off that key support level. The price is moving back toward the high prices for the month and year between 146.299 and 146.554. A move above would take the pair to the highest level since November 2022 and open the door for more upside potential
  • GBPUSD: The GBPUSD moved above its 100-day moving average at 1.2639 on its way to a high price at 1.26357. However, buyers turn to sellers and the price has since moved back below a swing area between 1.2590 and 1.26238. The low price from the week comes in at 1.2559. Below that in a swing area between 1.2536 and 1.2547 would be targeted.
  • USDCAD: The USDCAD has moved above the swing highs from Wednesday and earlier today at 1.3603. That opens the door for further momentum toward 1.36534 where the price peaked both on May 26 and May 31. Risk is now a move back below the 1.3603 level. Absent that the buyers are in control.
  • AUDUSD: The AUDUSD initially rallied and extended above the 200 and 100-hour moving average is near 0.6432. The high price reached 0.6440, before reversing back to the downside. New lows have been made for the day below 0.6403. The low prices from Monday at 0.6387 and the low prices from last Friday and Thursday at 0.6379 and 0.6363 are the next downside targets. Close risk is now the prior low from earlier in the day at 0.6403, but as long as the price can remain below the 100 and 200-hour moving averages, the bias would still remain more in favor of the sellers.

Not included in the video, but yields have moved higher with the two-year now up 6 basis points of 5.08%. The 10 year yield is at 4.27% up 4.0 basis points and the 30 year is up 2.1 basis points of 4.323%.

In the US stock market, the major indices have turned negative

  • Dow industrial average -51 points or -0.15% at 34049
  • S&P index -18.06 points or -0.42% at 4358
  • NASDAQ index -83 points or -0.62% at 13380

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source