CBA expect the first RBA rate cut in Q1 24, but the risk is for later

Commonwealth Bank of Australia analysts after yesterday’s RBA decision. In summary:

  • cash rate steady at 4.10% in September, the third consecutive on hold decision
  • A tightening bias was retained, with uncertainty around services inflation still top of mind.
  • China risks were also noted.
  • The RBA sound comfortable that higher interest rates are working and we expect the hurdle to hike again remains high.
  • We expect 4.10%to be the peak in interest rates.
  • The next move in the cash rate should be down. We expect the first rate cut in Q1 24. However the risks are for a later start to the easing cycle.

RBA decision ICYMI:

And, a different view:

The RBA cash rate vs. Australia’s inflation rate.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at Source