EURUSD Technical Analysis – Bearish flag in the making?


  • The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting.
  • The macroeconomic projections were revised higher,
    and the Dot Plot showed that the FOMC still expects another rate hike by the
    end of the year with less rate cuts projected in 2024.
  • Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency but added that
    they will proceed carefully.
  • The US CPI beat expectations on the headline
    figures, but the core measures came in line with forecasts and the market’s
    pricing barely changed.
  • The labour market remains pretty resilient as seen once again last
    week with the beat inJobless Claims, although continuing claims missed for a second
    time in a row.
  • The US Retail Sales last week beat expectations by a big
    margin with positive revisions to the prior figures, suggesting the consumers’
    spending remains resilient.
  • Fed Chair Powelland other FOMC members continue to highlight the rise in long term yields as doing
    the job for the Fed and therefore they are expected to keep rates steady in
    November as well.
  • The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike anymore.


  • The ECB hiked by 25 bps at the
    last meeting and added a line in the statement that signalled the end of the
    tightening cycle.
  • President Lagarde highlighted the slowdown in
    Eurozone economy and didn’t push back against the idea of them having reached
    already the terminal rate.
  • The Eurozone CPI recently
    missed expectations across the board supporting the ECB’s stance.
  • The labour market remains
    very tight with the unemployment rate hovering at record low levels.
  • Overall, the economic data has been showing signs
    of fast deterioration in the economy, which gives the ECB another reason to
    keep rates steady.
  • The ECB members are leaning towards keeping rates
    higher for longer now.
  • The market doesn’t expect the ECB to hike anymore.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the EURUSD pair
eventually broke above the key trendline with the
moving averages crossing
to the upside. This has switched the bias more to the upside in the short-term,
but we can also notice that it could just be a more complex correction that
might end up forming a bearish flag.
Yesterday’s rally has also overstretched a bit as depicted by the distance from
the blue 8 moving average. In such instances, we can usually see a pullback
into the moving average or some consolidation before the next move.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price is
rejecting the upper bound of the hypothetical bearish flag and we have a strong
support zone
around the 1.0620 level. From a risk management perspective, the buyers would
be better off waiting for the price to pull back into the support as they will
also find the confluence with the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
and the red 21 moving average. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see
the price breaking below the support to increase the bearish bets into the
lower bound of the flag and eventually aiming for a breakout.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price is diverging with
the MACD right
at the upper bound of the flag. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum
often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it might be just another
signal that confirms a pullback into the support.

Upcoming Events

Today we will get the latest PMIs for the Eurozone
and the US. On Thursday, we will see the US Jobless Claims figures, while on
Friday we get the US PCE report which is not expected to change anything for
the Fed at this time.

See the video below

This article was written by FL Contributors at Source