Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged. Won’t cut until has confidence on inflation fall

  • Prior was 5.25-5.50%
  • Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace
  • Removes reference to ‘additional policy firming’
  • The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.
  • Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.
  • Entire paragraph about banking system and tighter financial conditions removed
  • Says risks to employment and inflation goals are “moving into better balance”

So the main line about a hiking bias was removed but it was replaced with a pushback against cutting too soon. Now Powell will be asked about what it will take to get ‘great confidence” that inflation is sustainably headed to 2%.

On net, I take this as a bit hawkish as it seems to be a direct pushback against a March cut, which was 62% priced in before the statement was released. The US dollar is 20-30 pips higher across the board and stocks are at the lows of the day.

Overall, the statement was almost completely re-written.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com. Source