First of 2 key Australian CPI data points ahead of Feb. RBA meeting is out mid-week

Australia’s latest monthly CPI indicator, for November 2023, is due out on Wednesday:

  • 11.30 am Sydney time
  • which is 0030 GMT Wednesday and 7.30pm US Eastern time Tuesday

This is the first of the two key inflation indicators ahead of the RBA’s February Board meeting. The Q4 2023 CPI is more important, it will be published on January 31. The quarterly CPI remains the benchmark measure of consumer prices in Australia. However, the November data is highly relevant, it will include data for most services, which is where the RBA is most concerned about sticky inflation.

Preview snippet from Commonwealth Bank of Australia on the November print due mid-week:

  • Private survey data have showed a cooling in inflation pressures over the last few months of 2023.
  • Melbourne Institute’s inflation gauge has moderated sharply.
  • NAB’s Business survey final price growth measure also dipped.
  • And the S&P output price PMI has eased from their Q3 23 pace.
  • All of this data is encouraging. Inflation pressures across other advanced economies have also rapidly cooled. Inflation is above, but getting close r to, central banks’ targets. Australia has seen the disinflation process start later.

For the data on Wednesday:

  • We are confident the data will show a continued easing in inflationary pressures.
  • We forecast consumer prices rose by 0.5% in original terms in the month and annual CPI inflation eased to 4.4% y/y in November (from 4.9 %/ yr in October).

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at Source