FOMC minutes: Participants saw upside risks to inflation as having diminished

  • Participants viewed policy rate as likely near its peak
  • Members generally viewed addition of ‘any’ to statement as an indication that rates likely near peak
  • ‘A number’ of participants highlighted uncertainty around how long restrictive policy would need to be maintained
  • Those participants pointed to downside risks to economy associated with an overly-restrictive stance
  • Participants observed progress on inflation had been uneven across components, noted core services prices prices still rising at elevated pace
  • Several participants observed that circumstances might warrant keeping policy rate at current level longer than they currently anticipate
  • Several participants noted the decline in the use of overnight reverse repo facility, saw this reflecting portfolio shifts by money market funds

The market reaction to the report was minimal but I would highlight the comment about core services as the most important one and the most important spot that Fed officials are watching.

That said, you can rarely get an edge trading off the minutes as they’re always dated and Fed officials have had plenty of opportunities to speak since Dec 13, including Powell’s press conference that day.

This article was written by Adam Button at Source