GBPUSD Technical Analysis – We are at a key support


  • The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with a shift in
    the statement that indicated the end of the tightening cycle.
  • The Summary of Economic Projections showed a
    downward revision to Growth and Core PCE in 2024 while the Unemployment Rate
    was left unchanged. Moreover, the Dot Plot was revised to show three rate cuts
    in 2024 compared to just two in the last projection.
  • Fed Chair Powell didn’t push back against the strong dovish pricing
    and even said that they are focused on not making the mistake of holding rates
    high for too long, which implies a rate cut coming soon.
  • The US CPI last week came in line with expectations
    with the disinflationary progress continuing steady. This was also confirmed by
    the US PPI the day after where the data missed
  • The labour market has been showing signs of
    weakening lately but we got some strong releases recently with the US Jobless Claims and the NFP coming
    in strongly.
  • The US Retail Sales last week beat expectations across the board as
    consumer spending continues to hold.
  • The US Consumer Confidence report yesterday beat expectations across the
  • The latest ISM Manufacturing PMI missed expectations falling further into
    contraction, while the ISM Services PMI beat forecasts holding on in expansion.
  • The market expects the Fed to start cutting rates
    in Q1 2024.


  • The BoE left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting
    with no dovish language as they reaffirmed that they will keep rates high for
    sufficiently long to return to the 2% target.
  • Governor Bailey pushed back against rate cuts
    expectations as he said that they cannot say if interest rates have
  • The latest employment report missed forecasts with wage growth
    coming in much lower than expected and job losses in November.
  • The UK CPI today missed expectations across the board,
    which is another welcome development for the BoE.
  • The UK PMIs showed the Manufacturing sector falling
    further into contraction while the Services sector continues to expand.
  • The latest UK Retail Sales missed expectations across the
    board by a big margin as consumer spending remains weak.
  • The market expects the BoE to start
    cutting rates in Q2 2024

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD recently
probed above the 1.2743 resistance but got
smacked back down soon after. The divergence with the
MACD was also
a warning sign of a possible pullback as it often signals pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, the price is pulling back to the key trendline where we
can find the confluence with the
1.2593 support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of
the entire fall since July.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see more closely the
bullish setup around the support zone. This is where the buyers are likely to
step in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally into
new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
below the trendline to invalidate the bullish setup and position for a drop
into the 1.2374 level.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the current price action with the pair trading into the support zone.
If the price breaks above the minor downward trendline, the buyers should
increase their bullish bets into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand,
might want to lean on the minor trendline to position for a downside breakout
with a better risk to reward setup.

Upcoming Events

Today we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures,
while tomorrow we conclude the week with the UK Retail Sales and the US PCE data.

This article was written by FL Contributors at Source