Goldman Sachs on the FOMC hurdle if they pause in November too. Rate cuts from Q2 2024

Goldman Sachs are with most in the market in expecting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to leave the fed Funds rate unchanged at the September meeting.

November is the meeting after this and that one is more complicated for the Fed. GS say that another skip in November would raise the “hurdle for re-starting the

Further out though:

“ … we think Fed officials are
unlikely to move quickly into a rate-cutting cycle unless growth
slows more than we are forecasting in the coming quarters, and we
expect only very gradual cuts of 25bp per quarter starting in 2Q24”

The September FOMC meeting looks to be a hold, almost certainly (this is the CME ‘FedWatch tool’):

While November is still roughly a 60/40 shot:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at Source