- This is a hard judgment call.
- There is no expectation of needing to rise rates any further from here.
- The path forward is no longer obvious, and inflation reduction will take longer than expected.
- Even with a 25 BP move at the next meeting, it will still require patience from there; there are no expectations for dramatic sea changes in inflation.
- The underlying data on inflation is telling a very positive story.
- It’s a “pretty straightforward story” that inflation could return to 2% without rates rising further.
- Businesses are expecting wage growth to normalize; wages are considered a lagging indicator of price setting.
- There is a lot of evidence that services spending has peaked.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source