Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights include: US PCE, BoJ SOO, Biden/Trump debate

Week Ahead 24-28th June:

Mon: BoJ Summary of Opinions, German Ifo Survey (Jun),
German Import Prices (May)

Tue: Japanese Services PPI (May), Canadian CPI (May), UK GDP

Wed: Australian CPI (May), German GfK Consumer Sentiment

Thu: Biden/Trump debate on CNN, Riksbank Announcement, CBRT
Announcement, CNB Announcement, European Council, Chinese Industrial Profits
YTD (May), EZ Sentiment Survey (Jun), US GDP Final (Q1)

Fri: European Council, Japanese Tokyo CPI (Jun)/Activity
Data (May), German Unemployment (Jun), US PCE (May), US University of Michigan
Final (Jun)

Note: Previews are listed in day order

BoJ SOO (Mon):

The BoJ will release the Summary of Opinions
from the June meeting next week which could provide further insight into board
members’ thinking during the latest policy meeting where it kept its short-term
policy rate unchanged at 0.0%-0.1%, as widely expected through a unanimous
vote, although it caught markets off-guard as it defied expectations for the
central bank to announce an immediate tapering of its bond purchases and
instead decided to keep purchases in line with its decision in March. Nonetheless,
the BoJ effectively kicked the can down the road as it declared it is to trim
purchases but will decide on a specific bond-buying reduction plan for the next
1-2 years at the next meeting in July, while the decision on JGB purchases was
made by 8-1 vote in which BoJ board member Nakamura dissented citing the bank
should decide to reduce purchases after reassessing developments in economic
activity and prices in the July 2024 outlook report. Furthermore, the BoJ said
it will hold a meeting with bond market participants (on July 9-10th) on its
policy decision and it expects that underlying inflation is to gradually
accelerate, while Governor Ueda said during the post-meeting press conference
that the reduction of JGB purchases will be a considerable volume and they will
start a reduction of JGB purchases immediately after deciding at the July
meeting, as well as noted that a July hike is naturally possible, depending on
the data.

Canadian CPI (Tue):

In June, the BoC cut rates by 25bps to
4.75%, arguing that monetary policy no longer needed to be as restrictive with
continued evidence that underlying inflation is easing. Recent inflation data
had increased policymakers’ confidence that inflation will continue to move
towards the 2% target, though it still noted that risks to the inflation
outlook remain. The Governing Council is closely watching the evolution of core
inflation, adding that it remained particularly focused on the balance between
demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and
corporate pricing behaviour. Ahead, the BoC said three-month measures of core
inflation suggest continued downward momentum in CPI, adding that it remains
resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability.

Australia CPI (Wed):

The monthly CPI indicator is expected
to tick higher to 3.8% from 3.6%. This month’s data will shed light on the
unfolding of services inflation during the June quarter. That being said,
analysts at Westpac remind us that only 60% of the quarterly CPI is surveyed by
the Monthly CPI Indicator, and many components are surveyed just one month each
quarter, and some only once a year – thus may not accurately reflect the
quarterly CPI. “Our preliminary forecast for the May Monthly CPI Indicator is
for a flat print in the month”. “Given a –0.4%mth decline in May
2023, this would see the annual pace lift from 3.6%yr to 4.0%yr.” Westpac says,
adding that this will be the first instance since September 2023 where the
annual rate of inflation in the Monthly CPI Indicator surpasses that of the
quarterly CPI. As a reminder, in the most recent RBA confab where rates were
maintained, the central bank kept to a hawkish tone on inflation as it
reiterated that inflation remains above target and is proving persistent, as well
as noted that inflation is easing but has been doing so more slowly than
previously expected and remains high. Furthermore, it stated that the path of
interest rates that will best ensure that inflation returns to target in a
reasonable timeframe remains uncertain and the Board is not ruling anything in
or out. On the data itself, RBA’s Bullock said that they need a lot to go their
way to bring inflation back into range and noted that the entire economy is to
be looked at, not just Q2 CPI.

Riksbank Announcement (Thu):

In May, the Riksbank cut its
rate by 25bp to 3.75% and guided participants towards two more cuts occurring
during H2-2024 if the inflation outlook materialises. Guidance implied that
there would not be a cut in June, a point that as recently as end-May has been
explicitly reiterated by Governor Thedeen. More recently, on 4th June, Breman
reiterated the above guidance. On the data front, May’s CPIF-XE Y/Y printed
slightly above the Riksbank’s forecast; note, that the month’s broad inflation
metrics were subject to significant two-way factors including mortgage costs
and electricity prices. For the June meeting, the primary point of focus will
be on when the repo path indicates the two H2-2024 cuts are likely to occur,
respondents to SEB’s investor survey believe the path will show the policy rate
at 3.25% in Dec’24 and 2.75% in Dec’25, broadly in-fitting with the current

CBRT Announcement (Thu):

The CBRT is expected to maintain
its Weekly Repo Rate at 50%, according to all 11 economists polled by Reuters,
as the central bank is expected to remain in a wait-and-see mode for now. The
May CPI data was unfavourable for the CBRT as Y/Y accelerated and topped
forecasts at 75.45% (exp. 74.80%, prev. 69.80%), and PPI rose to 57.68% Y/Y
from 55.66%. At the May meeting, the CBRT maintained its Weekly Repo Rate at
50% for the second consecutive month, in line with all analysts’ expectations.
In its statement, the Bank emphasised its vigilance in monitoring the effects
of monetary tightening on credit conditions and domestic demand, underscoring
the need for a persistent tight monetary stance until a significant and
sustained decline in monthly inflation is achieved, with inflation expectations
aligning with forecasts. The central bank also indicated its readiness to
tighten monetary policy further if inflation risks increase, aiming to
establish disinflation in the second half of the year. The desk at CapEco noted
that while many analysts foresee rate cuts by the end of the year, CapEco
predicts the easing cycle will commence in early 2025. The desk highlighted
that inflation, which is expected to peak at around 75% year-on-year in May,
should drop to 38% by year-end. CapEco believes that the central bank will
likely maintain its current stance due to robust economic activity and
persistent inflation risks. The latest CBRT Survey for June showed that the
Repo Rate is seen at 35.90% in 12 months (prev. 37.11%); end-2024 USD/TRY seen
at 37.7463 (prev. 38.7771); end-2024 GDP growth seen at 3.3% (prev. 3.3%).

Biden/Trump Debate (Thu):

The first debate between President
Biden and former President Trump, will be the first of at least two debates
before the November 5th election. The 90-minute debate will take place in
Georgia and is scheduled to be on CNN at 21:00EST on Thursday, June 27th
(02:00BST on June 28th). Going into the debate, a Fox News poll revealed Biden
has overtaken Trump for the first time since October, with 50% of respondents
indicating that they’d vote for him, while 48% showed a preference for Trump;
analysts said the polling may reflect Trump’s recent felony charges of
falsifying business documents. However, an Ipsos poll finds that Trump would
beat Biden 37% to 35% overall in the seven swing states (Michigan,
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada). In terms of
the market impact, analysts see the debate as focusing attention on the impact
that higher tariffs could have on growth, inflation, and interest rates.
Capital Economics said most of Trump’s major policy initiatives would be inflationary,
whether that be narrowing the trade deficit via tariffs or a dollar devaluation
(reports suggest that Trump would introduce higher tariffs on China and
universal tariffs on other countries to narrow the US trade deficit, which
could result in a higher USD and inflation, and even hit Eurozone growth rates
too), curbing immigration (which could impact the labour market; many argue
that higher immigration is the potential explanation for the strength and
resilience seen in US labour market data), or compromising the Fed’s
independence (there have been multiple reports that Trump would look to replace
Fed Chair Powell, potentially with Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett or Art Laffer).

Japanese Tokyo CPI (Fri):

Tokyo inflation data for June is
due next week which is seen as a leading indicator for the national price
trend, while participants will be eyeing the data to see if there is a further
acceleration to the headline and core inflation readings seen in the capital
region last month. As a reminder, Tokyo Inflation in May printed mixed as
headline CPI was firmer-than-expected at 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.1% (Prev. 1.8%), while
Ex. Fresh Food CPI matched estimates at 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.6%) and Ex.
Fresh Food & Energy CPI also printed in line with forecasts but slowed from
the previous to 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 1.8%). The acceleration in the
headline and core readings in May was driven by higher electricity charges
which rose 13.1% Y/Y owing to an increase in the fee added to electricity bills
to cover the cost of promoting renewable energy and is seen as likely to
persist, while prices of food excluding perishables maintained its pace of
growth at 3.2%. However, underlying inflation moderated and is anticipated to
continue doing so which if materialised, would spur doubts regarding the
ability to sustainably and stably achieve the central bank’s 2% target and
could effectively lessen the scope for the BoJ to hike rates further this year.
Recently, Japanese PM Kishida said the government is to extend fuel subsidies
to end-2024, and roll out electricity and gas bill relief measures between
August and October.

US PCE (Fri):

In May, US CPI eased to 3.3% Y/Y (exp. 3.4%,
prev. 3.4%), with the core measure falling to 3.4% Y/Y (exp. 3.5%, prev. 3.6%);
the supercore gauge fell to 4.8% Y/Y, the first decline in the annual supercore
rate since last October. Meanwhile, PPI eased to a rate of 2.2% Y/Y in the
month (exp. 2.5%, prev. 2.3%), while the core measure eased to 2.3% Y/Y (exp.
2.4%, prev. 2.4%). With those data in hand, analysts are able to accurately
predict how the PCE data will come in. The WSJ’s Fed watcher Nick Timiraos said
that inflation modellers expect the core PCE index rose around 0.08-0.13% M/M
in May (vs +0.2% M/M in April); that would translate to a 2.6% Y/Y core PCE
inflation rate, down from 2.8% in April, and would hold the 6-month annualised
core PCE rate around 3.2-3.3% in May, while the 3-month annualised rate would
drop back below 3% for the first time since January. In its June policy
statement, the Fed said that “there has been modest further progress”
on inflation, although updated economic projections saw the central bank
slightly nudge up its end-of-year inflation forecast to 2.6% (previously, it
was forecasting 2.4%). In the post-meeting commentary, officials have generally
welcomed the recent tick lower in prices, but have spoken about the need to see
further lower inflation data to achieve confidence that prices will sustainably
fall back to target before they can feel comfortable in endorsing rate cuts.
The updated economic projections from June also revised down the number of rate
cuts seen this year (the Fed now predicts just one rate cut in 2024, down from
its previous forecast for three, but analysts note how the median and mode are
close, and it would only take a couple of officials endorsing rate cuts to see
two reductions this year). Currently, money markets are pricing around 47bps of
rate cuts this year – which is fully discounting one 25bps cut, and a very high
probability of seeing that second reduction.

This article originally appeared on Newsquawk

This article was written by Newsquawk Analysis at Source