Nomura forecasts EUR/USD to 1.02, toward parity is “very possible” if oil price stays firm

Nomura analyst speaking with Bloomberg TV on Monday:

  • EUR/USD towards 1.02 & towards parity is very possible as long
    as oil prices don’t find a way to
  • U.S yields … U.S rates
    suggest that EUR/USD should be at
    1.01 to 1.03 already and if oil gets to $100/bbl to $110/bbl it’s very easy for the Euro area to see
    their currency weaker because they are
    an energy importer
  • EUR/USD … it’s been a zigzag up down up
    down … looks to be
    finally an exit of that range band price
    action … looks more like a
    trend now

On the risks to this lower EUR view:

  • the
    main risk is if the US data starts to
    come in soft and U.S yields stop

And how the shutdown avoidance supports the USD:

  • U.S government shutdown has
    been avoided which means that we’re
    going to get non-farm payrolls, we’re
    going to get the jolts data and
    crucially we’re not going to get all
    those government workers laid off
  • it was
    going to be really difficult for the
    market to buy the dollar with initial
    claims jobless claims spiking higher on
    Thursday well that shouldn’t happen now
    thanks to that government shutdown being

EUR/USD daily chart below. Has it now formed a downtrend, has it busted out of the range? What do the folks pof ForexLive say – let me know in the comments!

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at Source