US:
- The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
expected at the last meeting. - The macroeconomic projections were revised higher
as the economy showed much stronger resilience than expected and the Dot Plot
showed that the majority of members still expects another rate hike by the end
of the year with less rate cuts in 2024. - Fed Chair Powell
reaffirmed their data dependency but added that they will proceed carefully as
they are trying to find the optimal level of rates. Powell also added that the
soft landing is not the base case atthe moment, although they are aiming for
it. - The latest US Core PCE
came
in line with expectations with disinflation continuing steady. - The labour market
displayed signs of softening although it remains fairly solid as seen also last
week with a strong beat in Jobless Claims and
yesterday with the beat in Job Openings. - The ISM Manufacturing PMI beat
expectations in another sign that the US economy remains resilient. - The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike again at
the moment, but rate cuts continue to be priced out in 2024.
New Zealand:
- The RBNZ kept its official cash rate
unchanged while
stating that demand growth continues to ease and it’s expected to decline
further with monetary conditions remaining restrictive. - The recent New Zealand inflation and employment data surprised to the upside but
the PMIs continue to slide further into contraction. - The wage growth has also missed
expectations and it’s something that the central banks are watching closely. - The recent New Zealand Retail Sales beat expectations although the data
remains deeply negative. - The RBNZ is expected to keep the
cash rate steady at the next meeting as well.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that the NZDUSD pair
tried to break out of the range but got smacked back down to the previous lows.
Such rangebound markets are the worst and the best strategy is generally to sit
out and wait for a clear breakout supported by a fundamental catalyst to join
the trend. Nonetheless, one can also “play the range” by buying at support and
selling at resistance.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see more closely the
range between the 0.5860 support and 0.6000 resistance. There’s no clear level
to lean on within the range as the price action remains messy. We can expect
the buyers to step in around these levels to target another rally into the
upper bound of the range, while the sellers will want to see the price breaking
below the support to increase the bearish momentum and target new lows.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that on
this timeframe we have a clear downtrend as the price has been printing lower
lows and lower highs with the moving averages being
crossed to the downside. The latest leg lower was caused by the RBNZ policy
decision, although it was expected so the price returned to the previous levels
after the initial spike. The sellers are likely to pile in around the trendline with a
defined risk above it to target a break below the support. The buyers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking above the latest lower high
around the 0.5920 level to turn the trend around and target another rally into
the 0.6000 resistance.
Upcoming Events
Today on the agenda we have the ADP report and the
ISM Services PMI. Tomorrow, we will see the latest Jobless Claims data, which
continues to show a solid labour market. Finally on Friday, it will be the time
for the NFP report which is the only one the Fed will see before its next rate
decision.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com. Source