PIMCO says bullish longer term bonds (12 month horizon), cites peaking inflation

PIMCO said it was bullish on the performance of long-term bonds:

  • continue to favour long-term bonds over the next year, as they provide high yields not seen for over a decade while offering a cushion against economic uncertainty
  • and expectations inflation has peaked


  • U.S. economic growth is expected to slow the remainder of 2023 and next year, “hovering between stagnation and mild recession,”
  • said much of this year’s resilience was due to fiscal support, with deficits widening and U.S. households still benefiting from pandemic-related stimulus measures
  • but it sees that support waning next year at the same time as inflation keeps eroding households’ excess savings
  • “As fiscal support fades, the drag from tighter monetary policy will intensify,”

Adds also:

  • Core U.S. inflation is likely to be in the 2.5%-3% area by the end of next year

Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) is an investment management firm.

US 10 year yield daily chart.

I posted this last week, since then events have conspired to title the answer tentatively to ‘yes’:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com. Source