Preview: Reserve Bank of Australia widely expected to leave its cash rate unchanged today

The Reserve Bank of Australia September meeting is coming up on Tuesday September 5. The statement will be published at 2.30pm local time in Sydney, which is 0430 GMT and 2230 US Eastern time on Monday, 4 September 2023.

Preview comments via TD:

  • We expect the RBA to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.1% (consensus is also 4.1%) at the September meeting after the encouraging July CPI print.
  • The economic data hasn’t provided much impetus for the RBA to restart its hiking cycle since the Bank transited to a fine-tuning phase in this cycle, emphasising that the Board will take decision month-by-month based on incoming data.
  • July CPI inflation continued to decelerate to 4.8% y/y while the job losses of -14.6k in July cements the case for another pause from the Bank.
  • As such, we doubt there will be any distinct shift in the RBA’s messaging at the September meeting and expect Governor Lowe’s last RBA meeting to go without much fanfare.

Yes, its Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe’s final meeting in charge. Current Deputy RBA governor Michele Bullock takes over as boss on September 18. Prior to that Lowe makes one final public speech:


Deputy RBA governor Michele Bullock and RBA governor Philip Lowe

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at Source