Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock spoke in parliament. She didn’t add a lot to what she said earlier in the week but that hasn’t stopped markets from pushing rate cut expectations out further.
- RBA Bullock: Recent inflation developments are encouraging, some way to go to meet target
- RBA Bullock: If consumption slows quicker than expected will be opportunity to cut rates
And make sure you mix in this bombshell forecast for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand:
As an aside, if ANZ are correct and that’s what we get from the RBNZ it should trigger a wider rethink of expectations for other DM central banks. Anyway, back to the RBA:
- the probability of a rate cut from the RBA in May has dropped from around 50% last week to around 20 now
- September is still seen as the the most likely month for
the first rate cut
- UBS to now expect the first rate cut from the RBA in
November, rather than August.
- Capital Economics are tipping August for the first cut, from May
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com. Source