Rising NZDUSD defies sellers, uncertain market awaits breakout

Like the AUDUSD, the NZDUSD moved higher in the early Asian session and in the process pushed away from a swing area support between 0.6117 and 0.6125. The swing area was tested on the decline yesterday. That move lower also took the price below the 200-hour moving average for the first time since November 14. However, the inability to attract more sellers disappointed those who sold on that break, and they likely fueled the run back to the upside.

Since peaking in the early European session, the price has fluctuated down and back up. In the process, the price moved above and below the 100-hour moving average (blue line in the chart below). However, of note is that the decline in the European morning session found support buyers against it 200-hour moving average (green line in the chart below).

What next?

The price is currently trading between the 100-hour moving average above at 0.6164 and the 200-hour moving average below at 0.61421. At some point, traders will take the price above the 100 or below the 200-hour moving average with momentum. With the price currently between the moving averages, it is saying to me the market does not know which way it wants to go.

If the 200-hour moving average is broken on the downside, it doesn’t erase the key swing area between 0.6117 – 0.6125 as a target to get to and through to increase its bearish bias. If that area is broken traders with next look toward the 200-day moving average and 0.60888.

Conversely, if the 100-hour moving average is broken on the topside, and there can be momentum, getting above the earlier high at 0.6176 would open up the door for a run toward recent highs including the high from Monday’s trade at 0.62215.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source