SNB’s Jordan says small risk for higher inflation

Chairman of the governing board of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Jordan at the 2024 Bank of Korea International conference, Seoul.

  • says there is an upward risk to the bank’s inflation forecast, a small risk
  • there are reasons to believe that the natural rate of interest has increased or may well rise

The term “R star” refers to the natural rate of interest, also known as the neutral interest rate.

  • This is a theoretical concept representing the interest rate that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy when it is operating at full capacity and with stable inflation.
  • The natural rate of interest is important for central banks because it helps them set their policy rates.
  • If the policy rate is above r*, the policy is considered contractionary, which could slow economic growth and lower inflation.
  • Conversely, if the policy rate is below r*, the policy is seen as expansionary, potentially boosting economic growth and raising inflation.
  • Determining the actual value of r* is challenging as it cannot be observed directly. It must be estimated using economic models that consider various macroeconomic factors, such as productivity growth, demographics, and global economic conditions. These estimates can change over time due to shifts in these underlying factors.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at Source