Société Générale forecast USD/CNY as high as 7.40

Soc Gen on the sliding yuan, forecasting USD/CNY to 7.30 in Q3 of this year

  • and to 7.40 in Q4 2023 & Q1 2024

SG say that

  • Market enthusiasm about China’s reopening didn’t last long
  • Even some of the more resilient indicators failed to mask the country’s structural problems.
  • market shrugged off the recovery and is more focused on structural challenges
  • this combination means the yean is likely to weaken further

SG on the People’s Bank of China:

  • PBoC does not seem too concerned about the yuan weakness

Which means that China’s

  • underwhelming growth outlook and rising expectations of further monetary easing could maintain downward pressure on the CNY for some time yet


A glance at the chart shows work is likely to be done (I drew in an area for this to the left) for now:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at Source