US bank economists see a slower US economy, no recession, & 100bp of Fed cuts from May ’24

The latest from the American Bankers Association’s Economic Advisory Committee

  • composed of 14 chief economists from some of North America’s largest banks

Forecasts, in brief:

  • real economic growth slowing to less than 1.0% annualized over the next three quarters
  • median committee forecast does not include any quarterly contractions
  • considerable concerns about a mild recession remain – risks center primarily around the delayed impact of monetary tightening, deteriorating credit availability, and high credit costs, but also include event risks such as a prolonged government shutdown or renewed flaring of geopolitical tensions. The group consensus is that near-term recession risks have come down but are still significant for 2024, approaching 50%.

On the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC):

  • will leave the target federal funds rate range unchanged until May 2024
  • then reduce it by 100 basis points before the end of 2024

Bolding is mine.

From the report:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at Source