US Empire Fed manufacturing index for September 1.90 versus -10.00 estimate

  • Prior month -19.00 (was expecting -1.00)


  • New orders 5.1 versus -19.9 last month
  • Shipments 12.4 versus -12.3 last month
  • Prices paid 25.8 versus 25.2 last month
  • Prices received 19.6 versus 12.6 last month
  • Employment -2.7 versus -1.4 last month
  • Unfilled orders -5.2 versus -6.8 last month
  • Delivery times 2.1 versus 1.9 last month.
  • Inventories -6.2 versus -9.7 last month
  • Average work week -5.0 versus -10.7 last month

6-month forward:

  • 6 month Business 26.3 vs 19.9 last month
  • New orders 34.8 versus 28.1 last month
  • Shipments 33.7 versus 29.6 last month
  • Prices paid 37.1 versus 37.9 last month
  • Prices received 28.9 versus 18.4 last month
  • Employment 15.9 versus 24.9 last month
  • Average work week 0.0 versus -1.0 last month
  • capital expenditures 10.3 versus 13.6 last month
  • Technology spending 5.2 versus 14.6 last month

Summary from the NY Fed:

In September 2023, business activity in New York State remained relatively stable, as per the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. Key points from the survey include:

  1. General Business Conditions: The index for general business conditions increased by twenty-one points to 1.9.
  2. Orders and Shipments: There was a rise in new orders and shipments, with the new orders index jumping twenty-five points to 5.1 and the shipments index increasing by the same margin to 12.4.
  3. Unfilled Orders and Inventories: Unfilled orders continued to decrease, with the index at -5.2. Inventories also contracted, reflected by an index of -6.2.
  4. Delivery Times: There was minimal change in delivery times, with the index slightly rising to 2.1.
  5. Labor Market: Indicators showed a minor decline in employment levels, with the employment index at -2.7. The average workweek index was at -5.0, indicating a reduction in hours worked.
  6. Pricing: The pace of input price increases remained consistent, while there was a modest increase in selling prices.
  7. Future Outlook: Optimism about future business conditions grew, with the index for future conditions rising six points to 26.3, its highest in over a year. Firms anticipate a significant rise in new orders and shipments in the upcoming months, along with employment growth. However, capital spending plans appeared to be slightly weak.

In summary, while business activity in New York State remained steady in September 2023, there’s a growing optimism about the future, with expectations of increased orders, shipments, and employment.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at Source