The USDCHF has stretched lower again today. Since peaking at 0.8820 on December 8 – and near the broken 61.8% of the range since the July 2023 low at 0.88167 – the pair has been trending lower (see chart above). There have only been 2-days of gains (December 15 and December 20) compared to 7 down days. The price low today reached 0.8562. Overall, the pair had a high to low trading range of 258 pip over 9 trading days. That is a pretty good run.
The low price today, however, has run into the lows from 2023. That is providing some cause for pause on the run lower. Going back to July, the swing lows bottomed between 0.8552 to 0.8579. As mentioned, the low today reached 0.8562 between that low floor area (see blue numbered circles on the daily chart above). A move below the low at 0.8552 – and staying below – is now needed to open the door for more downside potential. For now, the buyers are leaning against the area and trying to push higher.
What next?
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the pairs move to the downside, traded above and below the 100/200 hour MAs on December 13 (FOMC day), before cracking lower and starting the run lower. Corrections on December 15 and December 20 both found willing sellers fairly comfortably ahead of the 100-hour MA (blue line on the chart below). Going forward, it will take a move above the 100 hour MA to give buyers more confidence. With the decline today, that MA is up at 0.8646. With the current price at 0.8582, the price is still some 60 or so pips away (the MA is moving lower, however).
For dip buyers, ahead of the 100-hour MA, upside targets that would build more confidence would eye:
- 0.8592. The low from Tuesday,
- 0.8604. A low from yesterday, and then
- 0.86307. That level is the low from last week and was near a high today.
If the dip buyers against the lows today can push the price above these interim levels, it allows for more upside confidence (with work to do including getting above the 100-hour MA).
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source