The USDCHF moved above the 50% midpoint of the move down from the end of June high at 0.8784 in the European session, but could not sustain momentum. As a result, the price rotated back to the downside. Swiss CPI did come in at -0.1% which helped to push the USDCHF to session highs, but momentum stalled.
The subsequent break back below the 50% at 0.8784 turned buyers into sellers. That break saw the price of the USDCHF move down to retest its 100-hour moving average (blue line currently at 0.87370). For the 3rd time in the last 5 trading days, the buyers leaned against the 100-hour moving average (risk is defined and limited against level) and pushed the price back to the upside.
What next?
Going forward with 3 successful tests of the 100-hour moving average, it increases the moving average’s importance. Staying above keeps the buyers in control. Moving below gives the sellers something to cheer about with the 38.2% retracement at 0.8729 and the 200-hour moving average at 0.8695 as other levels to target to increase the bearish bias.
Conversely, a move back about 50% retracement at 0.8784 will give the buyers yet another shot to push to the upside.
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This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source