Yes, April CPI was lower than expected, but “don’t get too carried away”

The US CPI data was slightly better than expected, and its a bit too late to say don’t get carried away:

Comments from ING on the data and the market moves:

  • US Treasury yields tumbled after what was, objectively viewed, only a very modest undershoot of April’s inflation forecasts.
  • the inflation figures remain inconsistent with the Fed’s target, and core inflation only fell because last year’s April reading was so high. May provides an opportunity for undershooting another high base, but then unless the monthly run-rate of inflation drops substantially, inflation will stall, or even begin to drift higher again. So don’t get too carried away
  • Rate cut expectations have shifted a fair amount already. A September rate cut is now fully priced in. A second cut is also fully priced in by December

USD/JPY is extending its losses, not relenting so far:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at Source