A rate hike at the July 22 meeting is a done deal, but officials from the ECB have been sowing doubt over a September rate hike.
Markets are much more sure on a September hike though, with the chances rising consistently.
This graph of how expectations for the September meeting have evolved over
the last few months is via Reuters:
The depo facility rate is currently 3.5%.
A 25bp rate hike in July and then September will take it to 4%.
ps. European Central Bank President Lagarde is speaking today, Friday, 23 June 2023, at 0700 GMT, which is 0300 US Eastern time.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com. Source