The AUDUSD has been stepping lower since peaking on June 16. Yesterday the pair:
- Stayed below the 20200-dayoving average of 0.66904
- Extended below the 50% midpoint of the move up from the June 1 low as 0.66785.
- Moved below a swing area between 0.6637 and 0.6652
- Moved below the 61.8% retracement of the move up from June 1 and 0.66263
those are some key technical breaks.
In trading today, a new low was made going back to June 5, but only just below the low from yesterday 0.6596. The price started to correct higher.
Price action has been up and down for most of the trading day. The high price did extend back above the 61.8% retracement of 0.66263 and into the low end of the swing area between 0.6637 and 0.6652. The high price reached 0.66401. The current price trades at 0.6631.
That swing area is a close risk. If the price can stay below that area and then the falling 100-hour moving average at 0.6658, the sellers would still control – at least in the short term. Note that on Tuesday, the price sniffed the 100-hour moving average on two separate occasions only to find willing sellers.
On further selling, the next target comes nearest 0.65785 and below that a swing area between 0.6558 and 0.65667.
For half the month of June the price action was one way to the upside. Since peaking on June 16, the price action has seen the opposite price action. The price has seen more one-way to the downside.
Can the sellers keep the momentum going? The technical clues are set with the swing area and the 100 hour MA the close bias defining levels.
PS The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet next week. The expectations are for no change in policy on Wednesday. CPI inflation came in at 5.6% year on year this week which was lower than the 6.1% expected and 6.8% last month. Is it enough to keep the central bank on hold and wait to see the impacts of rate hikes?
The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised rates by 400 basis points since May 2022. They did have one meeting where they paused but have raised rates by 25 basis points at the last 2 meetings.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source