Bank of Canada decision: Rates held unchanged at 5.00%, as expected

  • Prior overnight rate was 5.00%
  • BOC sees “clearer signs that monetary policy is moderating spending and relieving price pressures”
  • “There is growing evidence that past interest rate increases are dampening economic activity and relieving price pressures”
  • BOC repeated that it ” is prepared to increase the policy interest rate further if needed”
  • Sees inflation returning to 2% at the end of 2025 vs “mid-2025” previously
  • The global economy is slowing and growth is forecast to moderate further as past increases in policy rates and the recent surge in global bond yields weigh on demand
  • Weaker demand and higher borrowing costs are weighing on business investment
  • The surge in Canada‚Äôs population is easing labour market pressures in some sectors while adding to housing demand and consumption
  • The labour market remains on the tight side and wage pressures persist
  • a range of indicators suggest that supply and demand in the economy are now approaching balance
  • The BOC projects global GDP growth of 2.9% this year, 2.3% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025, little changed from previously
  • Growth in the euro area has slowed further

New forecasts:

  • Cuts 2023 growth forecast To 1.2% vs prior 1.8%
  • 2024 to 0.9% vs 1.2% prior
  • 2025 to 2.5% vs 2.4% prior
  • 2023 inflation to 3.9% vs 3.7%
  • 2024 inflation to 3.0% vs 2.5% prior
  • 2025 inflation to 2.2% vs 2.1% prior

USD/CAD was trading at 1.3772 just ahead of the decision and rose to 1.3793 afterwards. The overt hawkish bias is still there but all the commentary points to a slowing economy.

Macklem and Rogers will hold a press conference at 11 am ET

This article was written by Adam Button at Source