Bank of Japan policy meeting preview: 2024 could be the game changer

The Bank of Japan concludes its policy meeting on Tuesday.

As always, there is no firmly scheduled time for the announcement, expect it between 0230 and 0330 GMT (which is 2130 – 2230 US Eastern time). Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s press conference will follow at 06030 GMT (this is scheduled).

Earlier preview posted:

According to Reuters polling, none of the economists surveyed expect the Bank to end its negative interest rate policy, most are expecting this to happen in 2024. Some are tipping as early as January.

Reuters preview adds:

  • the BOJ is widely expected to keep its short-term rate target at -0.1% and that for the 10-year government bond yield around 0%.
  • Even if the BOJ keeps policy steady, comments from Ueda reinforcing his conviction that inflation will sustainably achieve the bank’s 2% target could heighten market expectations of an end to negative rates in January, some analysts say.
  • “The hurdle for beginning policy normalisation before waiting for the early outcome of (next year’s) wage negotiations is quite high,” said Yoshimasa Maruyama, chief market economist at SMBC Nikko Securities.
  • Analysts say the BOJ may find it easier to move in months like January and April, when it releases a quarterly outlook report with fresh growth and price projections.

For more on the prospects of a January pivot from the BOJ, I posted this last week:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at Source