The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged today at 5.00% but maintained a hawkish bias. CIBC thinks current rates will be enough to restrain inflation as mortgage resets work their way through the economy.
“We’ll stick to our view that the Bank of Canada has already delivered enough rate hikes to
keep growth under wraps, and bring inflation down on a somewhat faster trajectory than its latest forecasts. That good
news on the inflation front, and not so good news for growth, should be sufficient to bring a policy ease towards mid-2024,
with overnight rates getting to 3.5% by the end of that year. While that seems a long way from where we are now, its still
twice the peak interest rate of the prior cycle, and above the level that the Bank of Canada judges as neutral for economic
growth.”
The market is currently pricing in just 16 bps in easing next year so cuts amounting to 150 bps would be a material drag on the Canadian dollar.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com. Source