Commerzbank’s two factors that’ll prompt a weaker yen if the BOJ holds steady policy

Commerzbank analysts argue that the Japanese yen will be impacted by two factors if the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting once again doesn’t produce any policy tweak/change:

• short-term, the carry disadvantage will put pressure on the currency;
• and long-term, there is a risk that inflation will become so entrenched that monetary policy won’t be able to control it without suffering significant fiscal fallout.

Commerzbank lays out a very pessimistic potential risk, saying that uncertainty around whether “equilibrium” JPY exchange rates still exist, or whether there is a possibility of a never-ending depreciation/inflation spiral, is what is exerting pressure on the yen even at its current low level.

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Earlier previews:

BOJ is likely to consider raising their consumer inflation projection to around 2.5%

• Goldman Sachs are still expecting thee Bank of Japan will tweak YCC policy this week

• MUFG are expecting a Bank of Japan Yield Curve Control tweak at this week’s policy meeting

• BOJ meet this week. MUFG still expect YCC tweak but their confidence ebbing. Yen scenario.

• Bank of Japan meet this week, July 27-28 – no change seen to yield curve control (YCC)

• October is now the month most cited as the likely timing for a BOJ policy change

• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda comments this week have watered down YCC tweak expectations
• Weekly Market Outlook (24-28 July)
• Week ahead highlights include: FOMC, US GDP, PCE; ECB, BoJ; flash PMIs

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com. Source